- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 19 May 

The global economy is forecasted to return to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2021 or early 2022. 

The unemployment rate in OECD nations stood at 6.5% in March 2021, down from 6.6% in Feb 2021.

4.3%

The EU Commission has raised the Eurozone's economic growth forecast for 2021 to 4.3% from its earlier projection of 3.8%.

$289tn

Global debt declined by $1.7tn to $289tn in Q1 2021, for the first time in the last ten quarters, according to the Institute of International Finance.

Impact of Covid-19 on equity indices

- SECTOR IMPACT: PHARMA -

Latest update: 19 May

industry development

40x

CVS reported a 40x increase in the use of telemedicine and virtual services via its MinuteClinic division compared to pre-Covid-19.

280

Oncology trials continue to suffer the most disruption, with 280 recorded trials put on hold due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

drug development

The Covid-19 pandemic has created a massive global effort centred around finding effective therapeutics and vaccines.


While the development and commercialisation of a safe vaccine typically take at least several years to materialise, Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 has beaten that timeline by a considerable margin with the UK becoming the first market to approve the jab.


Vaccine candidates using classic technology will likely take at least 12-18 months to develop; however, timelines for DNA, mRNA or adenoviral vaccines are indeed shorter as multiple vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna and AstraZeneca now have demonstrated efficacy in the prevention of Covid-19.


Nevertheless, with pharmaceutical companies shifting their strategies to focus on the development of Covid-19-related assets, the non-Covid-19 drug development programmes have been brought to a temporary backseat.

Key pharma market developments

Supply Chain & Manufacturing

Logistic and supplies of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and intermediates are the major issues for all players involved in the manufacture and marketing of finished dose forms.


As concerns over the availability of APIs subside, manufacturing processes will begin to resume, though they will initially lag relative to regular operations.


Vaccine rollout

At its present rate of vaccination, the US will be able to administer two doses of any vaccine to 85% of adults within 95 days.


Herd immunity could potentially be achieved sooner, depending on the rollout of Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose vaccine.


Importantly, a significant percentage of adults in the US remain hesitant to receive a Covid-19 vaccine, with some surveys indicating that up to 30% of US adults would “probably” or “never” receive a Covid-19 vaccine.


This trend may dampen the benefit of the vaccine rollout and may make the herd immunity target of 70% difficult to achieve

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