- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 14 October 

Many economists have cut their GDP forecasts. The 2020 consensus forecast for GDP growth is currently negative and many predict a recession.

World Trade Organization forecasts the volume of world merchandise trade to shrink by 9.2% in 2020 followed by an estimated rise of 7.2% in 2021.

-4.4%

IMF has revised its 2020 global GDP forecast to -4.4% from an estimate of -4.9% made in June.

5.3%

The global economy is estimated to contract by 4.2% in 2020 and bounce back by 5.3% in 2021.

Impact of Covid-19 on equity indices

- SECTOR IMPACT: PHARMA -

Latest update: 13 October 

Clinical trial market impact

1,032

Trial disruption is leveling off and disrupted trials saw a small dip, with 1,032 trials still disrupted and 579 pharma/biotech companies and contract research organisations associated with disrupted clinical trials.

3,414

There are currently 3,414 clinical trials underway for Covid-19, including 172 multinational trials and 2,818 single-country trials.

Regulatory delays 

To date, the pandemic has had a minimal impact on the FDA’s ability to meet committed Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) dates for US drug approvals.


While multiple advisory committee meetings were postponed or cancelled during Q1 and Q2, the agency nonetheless managed to issue approvals and complete response letters for all PDUFAs during that timeframe.


Beginning in mid-June, the FDA moved upcoming advisory committee meetings to an online/teleconference format instead of postponing or cancelling them.


While this shift to a virtual meeting format should prevent delays in regulatory approvals due to the inability to meet in person, the agency’s statement in May about expected delays was a proactive warning to the industry, and potentially a harbinger of future delays.

Key pharma market developments

Telemedicine 

Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, the use of telemedicine by specialists was relatively low; however, 73% of specialists surveyed indicated that their use of telemedicine had increased as a result of the pandemic. Almost 75% of specialists indicated that they would use the technology in the future.


Clinical trials

The first choice for CROs and other contract service providers is to move to decentralised/virtual trials (DCTs). Many CROs already offer this model and there would be fewer necessary adaptations compared to other company roles. 


The APAC region is evenly split in addressing disruptions by remote patient monitoring, planning to move to DCTs, remote site initiation and mandating research staff to work remotely. Europe is the top region that has ceased opening any new clinical trial, with 9% of respondents indicating that their companies are not initiating any new trials.


Drug development 

The drug development landscape for Covid-19 is unique in that it has been negatively impacted by studies which are of low quality being used to justify use of drugs which rigorous studies do not support. These conflicts of data presentation have created conjecture about the reliability of data for Covid-19 therapeutics.

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