- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 08 January 

Many economists have cut their GDP forecasts. The 2020 consensus forecast for GDP growth is currently negative and many predict a recession.

The unemployment rate in South Africa reached a 17-year high of 30.8% in Q3 2020 as people started looking for jobs following the easing of coronavirus restrictions.

4.3%

The 2021 real GDP growth of the US has been revised to 4.3% from 3.96%.

33.1%

US real GDP grew by an annualised 33.1% in Q3 2020 according to the Commerce Department. 

Impact of Covid-19 on equity indices

- SECTOR IMPACT: PHARMA -

Latest update: 12 January 

Vaccine development

78%

Sinovac’s inactivated Covid-19 vaccine CoronaVac showed an efficacy of 78% according to investigators from the Butantan Institute, which is conducting the Brazilian Phase III trial with 13,000 participants. 

8.5%

In a global study with 800 critically ill Covid-19 patients that were enrolled within 24 hours of starting organ support in intensive care, the IL-6 inhibitors tocilizumab (Roche’s Actemra) and sarilumab (Sanofi/Regeneron’s Kevzara) reduced mortality rates by 8.5% (27.3% in treatment group, 35.8% in control group). 

vaccine approvals

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) authorised Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use in individuals ages 16 and older late on Friday 11 December, making it the first Covid-19 vaccine to roll out in the US.


The decision came after the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee to the FDA discussed Pfizer and BioNTech’s Phase III vaccine data and voted 17-4 (with one abstain) to recommend the vaccine for EUA on 10 December.


Vaccination started on 15 December, with an intensive care unit nurse in Queens being the first recipient of Pfizer/BioNTech's vaccine. Healthcare workers and elderly residents of long-term care homes are prioritised to be the first vaccine recipients, although states will decide individually on which groups to vaccinate first.

Key pharma market developments

Telemedicine 

Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, the use of telemedicine by specialists was relatively low; however, 73% of specialists surveyed indicated that their use of telemedicine had increased as a result of the pandemic. Almost 75% of specialists indicated that they would use the technology in the future.


Clinical trials

Clinical trial disruptions have begun to dip, however trials impacted by slow enrolment specifically are still increasing. At least 1,024 trials are disrupted and 589 Pharma/Biotech companies and CROs are associated with these trials. So far, 871 affected trials are back on track.


Drug development 

Vaccine candidates using classic technology will likely take at least 12-18 months to develop; however, timelines for DNA, mRNA, or adenoviral vaccines are indeed shorter as multiple vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, and AstraZeneca now have demonstrated efficacy in prevention of Covid-19, with both Pfizer/BioNtech's and Sinopharm’s candidates receiving approval for emergency use in December 2020.


Market cap changes

Bio/Pharma companies with a Covid-19 drug in the pipeline saw a smaller decrease in market cap in Q1 than companies without a Covid-19 drug in the pipeline. Small cap and mid cap Bio/Pharma companies with a Covid-19 drug saw an average 20% increase in market cap.

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